Homework 3

1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not yet discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.
 My question was: " By 2100, what percent of surgeries will be done by doctor-controlled robots?"
The first time the delphi method was applied, the total range was 87.  The median was 40%, and the range of the middle 50% was 20.  The second round yielded the following results:  Range 55, range of the middle 50% was 20, and the median was 60%.

2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
 The delphi method is a way to forecast or make predictions using a panel of  experts or people whose opinions and judgements are of interest to predict the outcomes.  These experts are ideally supposed to remain anonymous throughout this process. The results are recorded on paper and turned in anonymously, along with reasonings of why they chose that prediction.  A facilitator then reads aloud the results and comments, followed by discussion.
When we used this method in class, we tried to answer questions concerning fields that all of us (if any of us) were not experts in.  Therefore, we were probably not informed enough to make valid predictions. A second difference is that we called our answers out loud, and they did not stay anonymous.  This could have resulted in people changing their minds according to who made a comment rather than the validity of the comment.




3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
Some risks of the delphi method are, as we discovered in class, that people may have different preconceived notions about what certain terms mean or imply.  For example, one of the members of our class asked about when computers will be "creative".  We all had different understandings of the term "creative", and made our decisions accordingly.  I take creative to mean that one can come up with an answer, and not just make a choice from a pre-selected number of possible answer.  So the date I gave was further in the future than the person saying that to be creative is to be able to make choices.  Before using this method, it has to be made certain that all terms are clearly defined to and by the panel.
Another risk that I see is that if the identity of the other panel members is known, then anwers might be changed to conform to certain other peoples ideas, the bandwagon effect.  To avoid this, anonymity has to be preserved at all times and the panel should not comment openly on the results (which might give away what their answer was).
Also, when choosing a panel, the topics or questions have to be considered beforehand in order to choose true experts. In our case, we had some people that admitted they really had no idea and just picked an answer.  These could lead to a distortion of the results, especially when more "non-experts" are making invalid or uneducated predictions.