Robotic surgery is already used today, with the first procedure taking place in 1985 where the PUMA 560 was used to place a needle for a brain biopsy using CT guidance. Prostatic surgery was performed with the PROBOT in 1988, and in 1992, a machine called the ROBODOC was introduced to mill out precise fittings in the femur for hip replacement. (http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html)
Some of the advantages are that the procedures are less invasive and more precise, cutting down on pain and healing time. There is also the advantage of having to have less staff on hand for a surgery as many things now done by humans can, and probably will, be controlled by a single machine. For some surgeries that now require multiple surgeons, only one robot could suffice.
Obviously, there are some drawbacks, such as economical reasons, at least in the beginning stages of this technology. Other disadvantages are possible technological glitches (although these could possibly be equated to human errors that currently occur), and technological compatibility in the surgery room.
Nevertheless, I think robotic surgery or computer assisted surgery will take off in the future and replace a lot of surgeries currently done by human surgeons.
I will look at some current data, and then use that to make my prediction of how I think this technology will develop in the future.
Here are some numbers and projections I found on the topic:
According to http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html,
The global computer guidance and robotic surgery market was worth $400 million in 2001 and is growing rapidly with 24 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2001 to 2010.Using these criteria, the market worth at the end of 2010 would be $ 3,437,770,203!
Using those numbers, I estimated an annual growth rate of slightly over 91% from 2000 to 2004.
A 2005 BusinessWeek article says that about 20,000 procedures were performed using robotic surgery in 2004, compared to just 1,500 procedures in 2000. (http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html)
Continuing that trend to 2010, there would have been 1,860,839 robotic surgeries performed...
HOWEVER...
According to http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/,
"Surgical robots won FDA approval in 2000, and there are now 1,395 of them in 860 hospitals worldwide, performing more than 200,000 operations a year. Officials at Intuitive Surgical, the robot’s manufacturer, say 70 percent of all prostatectomies in the United States now are done by robot."
and in the Philadelphia Inquierer's "A surgeon's hands or a robot's?"
(http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html)
The number of surgeries [in the U.S] performed using da Vinci rose 51 percent in just one year, to 200,000 in 2009.(DaVinci currently being one of the, if not the most popular and widely used robotic surgery apparatus)
So obviously, the initial growth rate will, and has already slowed down. I tried to adjust for this and came up with an average annual increase of almost 47% between 2004 and 2010 (Note: This number does come close to the 51% increase mentioned in the statement above)
This trend leads me to believe that there will continue to be growth in this field, just not as agressive as in the beginning.
I believe the use of computers and robots in surgeries will increase quite a bit in the near future, as computer technology becomes more advanced and also more readily available. If more researchers and companies enter this market, competition will help the advances in this field to increase, and more and different machines will become available. Increased availabitlity will drive down the current cost involved, and make robots a pheasable alternative in the operating room of the future.
I also think that the current technology will diversify, so that more and more different procedures are handeled by robotic methods. The type of surgeries that require high amounts of precision, such as eye or brain surgeries,will probably be the first to be performed by robots soley. Eventually, many other routine surgeries will be handeled robotically as well, because it will be cheaper to use the machine rather than a full complement of human surgeons. Procedures will be (pre-) programmed into the apparatus, with the surgeon being present only to supervise and make necessary adjustments. I think this will cause a new field of medicine to develop, one where surgeons are trained more on how to program or control the machine rather than medicine itself.
I think that the possibility of technical glitches will probably always keep human doctors in close proximity, and so there will always be a human element present in the operating room. I think we will take on the role of a supervisor, telling the machine what to do, and keeping an eye on its performance.
Sources:
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/466691_8
http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-09-23/health/future.surgery.robots_1_robotic-surgery-da-vinci-system-medical-robots?_s=PM:HEALTH
http://science.howstuffworks.com/robotic-surgery1.htm
http://biomed.brown.edu/Courses/BI108/BI108_2004_Groups/Group02/Group%2002%20Website/robodisadvan.htm
http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html
http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html
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