Homework 2- problems

Question:  Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Answer: It will take a little less than 13 years for the productivity to double.
Question:  Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if this complexity doubles every 2 years.

Answer:  the increase would need to be slightly lower than 41.425% for the complexity of PCs to double every 2 years.
 
Question:  Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PC computers if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
 

Answer: for the complexity of PCs to double in 18 months, the percent per year increase would have to be slightly less than 58.75%
 
Question: What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
 

Answer: It will take slightly over 36 years for my money to double at a 2% interest rate.

Homework #1

So here is what I think the future will be like.  Maybe not the immediate future, but I think eventually we'll get there....and we have to start somewhere, right?!?

Growing Organs
The first topic of interest is how medicine will change or evolve in the future. I found an article on regeneration of organs, this one talks about the heart specifically. Sure, it does sound a bit futuristic, but there are organisms out there that can regenarate parts of their bodies when hurt or injured (flatworms. some lizards, and starfish comes to mind). So I think that with the genetic research we are doing, this is not just a possibility in the future, but a probability. This article says that "In 2021 You'll Grow A New Heart". Now I don't know about the timing of this, since human trials will take years upon years upon years...(and all the bugs have to be worked out before this even starts) ....and then new technology will not be widely used for a while after that, so maybe this is a little on the optimistic side? But certainly interesting and insightful.

nanotechnology
I also think that the size of technoloy is going to change tremendously. Things have already begun to be smaller and smaller (compare the "brick" cell phone to the newest generation ones...).  This article talks about nanotechnology, nano meaning very very small. This has implication in science, medicine, and probably everything else.  Tiny robots can be sent into your body to fix things or deliver medicines to only certain areas without affecting other, healthy areas.  Cool.
Just one thought....there was a startreck TNG episode where they had nanites (a collection of very small nanorobots) that were supposed to fix a problem, but they developed a conscience, would not let anyone control them anymore, and started to work on their own agendas.....nanites on the loose doesn't really sound like a good idea.

pets of the future
This article talks about how keeping pets will change in the future, especially pet-cloning.  So, if Rufus gets run over, can you get another "Rufus"?  Will it truly be the "same"? I found this article very interesting, and it also covers some of the ethics issues.
I wonder if we will eventually get to a "made-to-order" type of petownership.  We are already breeding for certain desired traits, and have for hundreds of years.  How far will this be taken? Will we be able to pre-select the character of the pet (is it nice or agressive)?