1)
a) When I watched that video, I was amazed how easlily he seemed to accept having to do the "next best thing". He had his list of goals, and when one didn't work out, he made the best of it, changed the goal, (but did not eliminate the idea of the goal). I think a lot of people, once they realize that they cannot do something, give up on it alltogether (like the astronaut thing....so he didn't actually become an astronaut, but he did find a way to make it into the vomit comet). I have done that too, in the past, and it always seemed like "i missed out" because I did not achieve the goal I had set a while back. Maybe coming up with something close and related to it, and pursuing it, would have kept me on my original path (or close to it) as well as not feeling like i completely missed out?
b) the topic that I will work on is based on the following idea:
does the way we think about the future and what it will be like depend on our age/what generation we are?
I will ask people of 3 different age groups (9th graders, people "my age" (30's and 40's), and people over 60. I will ask them the same 9 questions that I have come up with. I will then look at and compare the results and see if views are similar, different, or what other things i might find when analyzing the answers.
2.
The Future of Birthcontrol:
this is a blog about not really the future of birthcontrol (in class, we talked about it being mandatory one day), but reasons why it may not ever get to that point....something to consider when looking at this scenario. it is really talking about the malthusian (or here, neo-malthusian) theory, stating that eventually we will deplete our resources and face starvation. The writer describes the original theories, with a little historical background, and then states why they do not subscribe to this theory. they give many examples to explain why , in their opinion,
http://socyberty.com/history/advocates-and-opponents-of-malthusian-theory/2/
Future of computer processing of human language:
I liked this article because it is good for providing background inforation of natural language processing. it is very detailed, and goes through the prupose, strenght and weaknesses, the details fo speech recognition, explains key terms, etc.
The problem is that it is a bit dated (their latest reference cited is from 1997), and probably does not include current technology. It also does not address really the FUTURE applications of this technology except in the very last sentence when it talks about robotic systems.
http://www.hit.ac.il/staff/leonidm/information-systems/ch68.html
Future of online and virtual education:
This is a website for an already existing virtual school in Utah. I liked it because, in a nutshell, explained how the concept works in the real world. This page is not very long, and does not have a lot of information, but talks about issues that would come up when considering the topic of virtual schools in the future, like how much time it takes to go through the classes, how graduation works, how taking tests works, etc.
as a teacher i found it very interesting that a school like this already exists.
http://www.schools.utah.gov/ehs/
3)
a)
I think houses of the future will change from what they are right now. In the beginnings, houses were built simply as shelters. Then more functions and conveniences, like bathrooms, kitchens, were added.
Some building in the present have sensors that turn on lights when someone enters the room. Air conditioners work on thermostat that sense when the temp is too cold or hot.
This technology could change in the future and include sensors that sense when food or other household items are needed.
Then, I think sensors can and will be used to monitor not just the house itself, but the people inside it. It could monitor body temperature, heart rate, movements, etc.
it could then periodically send that (health) information to a medical facility. In case of a drastic change, it could alert emergency services.
Also the internal environment will change according to the sensors. Calming lights/sounds could be played, and scents could be dispersed if a person is deemed "upset" or aggitated. Energizing ones in the mornings if less than appropriate movement is noted.
b) Applying the principles of TRIZ to the house of the future
Beforehand cushioningPrepare emergency means beforehand to compensate for the relatively low reliability of an object.
The house monitors your health, knows your baseline, and knows all your medical info so it can relay it to emergency/medical professionals, or give you advise/talk to you what to do if you are in trouble.
DynamicsAllow (or design) the characteristics of an object, external environment, or process to change to be optimal or to find an optimal operating condition.
The house will continue to monitor who is there to adjust to their preferences in temp, humidity, etc. Also it can adjust that if there are many people in the house, it knows to run the air more to keep it cool.
Another dimension
Use a multi-story arrangement of objects instead of a single-story arrangement.
Built-in technology and interfaces: The computer system is behind the wall, as opposed to a computer sitting in a room. instead of having one device for each type of technology in the house (many remotes, controls, etc), all are integrated in one unit, and can be "reached" via voice commands.
Periodic actionInstead of continuous action, use periodic or pulsating actions.
the house will "sweep" the environment periodically for information, say every few seconds/minutes
*Blessing in disguise* or *Turn Lemons into Lemonade*Use harmful factors (particularly, harmful effects of the environment or surroundings) to achieve a positive effect.
Use the waste created in the house to fuel it (for energy). Heat produced can be stored.
FeedbackIf feedback is already used, change its magnitude or influence.
Change sensitivity of a thermostat when cooling vs. heating, since it uses energy less efficiently when cooling
Cheap short-living objects
Use paper-based products for towels, etc. to reduce laundry, and then they can be used in creating energy for the house (see above, #22)
Color changes
Make walls be able to change color, or become transparent, to see what's behind them ( to make it easier to check for leaks, wiring issues), or to hide or make the TV blend in when you don't want to see it. ALso, this could reduce the need for wallpaper/painting if wall color could be changed by the push of a button.
Composite materialsChange from uniform to composite (multiple) materials.
use lighter, cheaper, and easier to produce materials when building the house (fiberglass frames vs wood).
Merging
build units of houses that stack together (similar to apartments), have "rooms" you can just add to the top of the house if you need more space. remove and change them if you want to.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Homework #4 Prediction Markets
Here is my list of 10 prediction markets that I found using Intrade.com, in no particular order.
I am just pretending to trade, without actually logging into the account.
Of these 10 contracts, there are 2 that I think are currently valued too low (if only a little)
Of these 10 contracts, there are 2 that I think are currently valued too low (if only a little)
- Drilling.Moratorium.2010
- AR.Senate2010.Rep
 |
The current price for a contract in the Drilling Moratorium is $7.50.
The price for a contract in the Senate Race (Rep) is $9.49.
I will choose to invest my $1,000 in both of these; I will also take a (hopefull) longshot at the following prediction:
- Currently, a contract for this prediction costs $0.76.
- I will split the $1000 the following way:
- I will spend $700 on the Senate Race (buy 74 contracts)
- I will spend another $200 on the Off Shore drilling (buy 26 contracts)
- the last $100 I will spend on Finding Osama Bin Laden (buy 131 contracts)
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Homework 3
1. If your question was one of those that the class used the Delphi method on, find the median and the range of the middle 50% of the responses. Using a graphics editor of your choice (even paint works for this), make a graph that is analogous or similar to the one in the lecture notes, showing the total range, middle 50% range, and median. If your question was not yet discussed in class, then (1) figure out a way of saying the question that will work well when we apply the Delphi method to it in class, and (2) explain why you designed the question the way you did.
My question was: " By 2100, what percent of surgeries will be done by doctor-controlled robots?"
The first time the delphi method was applied, the total range was 87. The median was 40%, and the range of the middle 50% was 20. The second round yielded the following results: Range 55, range of the middle 50% was 20, and the median was 60%.
2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
The delphi method is a way to forecast or make predictions using a panel of experts or people whose opinions and judgements are of interest to predict the outcomes. These experts are ideally supposed to remain anonymous throughout this process. The results are recorded on paper and turned in anonymously, along with reasonings of why they chose that prediction. A facilitator then reads aloud the results and comments, followed by discussion.
When we used this method in class, we tried to answer questions concerning fields that all of us (if any of us) were not experts in. Therefore, we were probably not informed enough to make valid predictions. A second difference is that we called our answers out loud, and they did not stay anonymous. This could have resulted in people changing their minds according to who made a comment rather than the validity of the comment.
3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
Some risks of the delphi method are, as we discovered in class, that people may have different preconceived notions about what certain terms mean or imply. For example, one of the members of our class asked about when computers will be "creative". We all had different understandings of the term "creative", and made our decisions accordingly. I take creative to mean that one can come up with an answer, and not just make a choice from a pre-selected number of possible answer. So the date I gave was further in the future than the person saying that to be creative is to be able to make choices. Before using this method, it has to be made certain that all terms are clearly defined to and by the panel.
Another risk that I see is that if the identity of the other panel members is known, then anwers might be changed to conform to certain other peoples ideas, the bandwagon effect. To avoid this, anonymity has to be preserved at all times and the panel should not comment openly on the results (which might give away what their answer was).
Also, when choosing a panel, the topics or questions have to be considered beforehand in order to choose true experts. In our case, we had some people that admitted they really had no idea and just picked an answer. These could lead to a distortion of the results, especially when more "non-experts" are making invalid or uneducated predictions.
My question was: " By 2100, what percent of surgeries will be done by doctor-controlled robots?"
The first time the delphi method was applied, the total range was 87. The median was 40%, and the range of the middle 50% was 20. The second round yielded the following results: Range 55, range of the middle 50% was 20, and the median was 60%.
2. Read up on the Delphi method on the Web (or the library). Explain how the process that we went through in class differs from the process as described in the sources you found.
The delphi method is a way to forecast or make predictions using a panel of experts or people whose opinions and judgements are of interest to predict the outcomes. These experts are ideally supposed to remain anonymous throughout this process. The results are recorded on paper and turned in anonymously, along with reasonings of why they chose that prediction. A facilitator then reads aloud the results and comments, followed by discussion.
When we used this method in class, we tried to answer questions concerning fields that all of us (if any of us) were not experts in. Therefore, we were probably not informed enough to make valid predictions. A second difference is that we called our answers out loud, and they did not stay anonymous. This could have resulted in people changing their minds according to who made a comment rather than the validity of the comment.
3. Based on what you can find about the Delphi method, what shortcomings, risks, or other weaknesses do you see for the process that we followed in class? Also do you see a way to fix some of these?
Some risks of the delphi method are, as we discovered in class, that people may have different preconceived notions about what certain terms mean or imply. For example, one of the members of our class asked about when computers will be "creative". We all had different understandings of the term "creative", and made our decisions accordingly. I take creative to mean that one can come up with an answer, and not just make a choice from a pre-selected number of possible answer. So the date I gave was further in the future than the person saying that to be creative is to be able to make choices. Before using this method, it has to be made certain that all terms are clearly defined to and by the panel.
Another risk that I see is that if the identity of the other panel members is known, then anwers might be changed to conform to certain other peoples ideas, the bandwagon effect. To avoid this, anonymity has to be preserved at all times and the panel should not comment openly on the results (which might give away what their answer was).
Also, when choosing a panel, the topics or questions have to be considered beforehand in order to choose true experts. In our case, we had some people that admitted they really had no idea and just picked an answer. These could lead to a distortion of the results, especially when more "non-experts" are making invalid or uneducated predictions.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Homework 2 - part 1
I am interested in the question of how robotics and computer technology will change medicine,specifically surgeries, in the future.
Robotic surgery is already used today, with the first procedure taking place in 1985 where the PUMA 560 was used to place a needle for a brain biopsy using CT guidance. Prostatic surgery was performed with the PROBOT in 1988, and in 1992, a machine called the ROBODOC was introduced to mill out precise fittings in the femur for hip replacement. (http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html)
Some of the advantages are that the procedures are less invasive and more precise, cutting down on pain and healing time. There is also the advantage of having to have less staff on hand for a surgery as many things now done by humans can, and probably will, be controlled by a single machine. For some surgeries that now require multiple surgeons, only one robot could suffice.
Obviously, there are some drawbacks, such as economical reasons, at least in the beginning stages of this technology. Other disadvantages are possible technological glitches (although these could possibly be equated to human errors that currently occur), and technological compatibility in the surgery room.
Nevertheless, I think robotic surgery or computer assisted surgery will take off in the future and replace a lot of surgeries currently done by human surgeons.
I will look at some current data, and then use that to make my prediction of how I think this technology will develop in the future.
Here are some numbers and projections I found on the topic:
According to http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html,
Using those numbers, I estimated an annual growth rate of slightly over 91% from 2000 to 2004.
According to http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/,
and in the Philadelphia Inquierer's "A surgeon's hands or a robot's?"
(http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html)
So obviously, the initial growth rate will, and has already slowed down. I tried to adjust for this and came up with an average annual increase of almost 47% between 2004 and 2010 (Note: This number does come close to the 51% increase mentioned in the statement above)
This trend leads me to believe that there will continue to be growth in this field, just not as agressive as in the beginning.
I believe the use of computers and robots in surgeries will increase quite a bit in the near future, as computer technology becomes more advanced and also more readily available. If more researchers and companies enter this market, competition will help the advances in this field to increase, and more and different machines will become available. Increased availabitlity will drive down the current cost involved, and make robots a pheasable alternative in the operating room of the future.
I also think that the current technology will diversify, so that more and more different procedures are handeled by robotic methods. The type of surgeries that require high amounts of precision, such as eye or brain surgeries,will probably be the first to be performed by robots soley. Eventually, many other routine surgeries will be handeled robotically as well, because it will be cheaper to use the machine rather than a full complement of human surgeons. Procedures will be (pre-) programmed into the apparatus, with the surgeon being present only to supervise and make necessary adjustments. I think this will cause a new field of medicine to develop, one where surgeons are trained more on how to program or control the machine rather than medicine itself.
I think that the possibility of technical glitches will probably always keep human doctors in close proximity, and so there will always be a human element present in the operating room. I think we will take on the role of a supervisor, telling the machine what to do, and keeping an eye on its performance.
Sources:
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/466691_8
http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-09-23/health/future.surgery.robots_1_robotic-surgery-da-vinci-system-medical-robots?_s=PM:HEALTH
http://science.howstuffworks.com/robotic-surgery1.htm
http://biomed.brown.edu/Courses/BI108/BI108_2004_Groups/Group02/Group%2002%20Website/robodisadvan.htm
http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html
http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html
Robotic surgery is already used today, with the first procedure taking place in 1985 where the PUMA 560 was used to place a needle for a brain biopsy using CT guidance. Prostatic surgery was performed with the PROBOT in 1988, and in 1992, a machine called the ROBODOC was introduced to mill out precise fittings in the femur for hip replacement. (http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html)
Some of the advantages are that the procedures are less invasive and more precise, cutting down on pain and healing time. There is also the advantage of having to have less staff on hand for a surgery as many things now done by humans can, and probably will, be controlled by a single machine. For some surgeries that now require multiple surgeons, only one robot could suffice.
Obviously, there are some drawbacks, such as economical reasons, at least in the beginning stages of this technology. Other disadvantages are possible technological glitches (although these could possibly be equated to human errors that currently occur), and technological compatibility in the surgery room.
Nevertheless, I think robotic surgery or computer assisted surgery will take off in the future and replace a lot of surgeries currently done by human surgeons.
I will look at some current data, and then use that to make my prediction of how I think this technology will develop in the future.
Here are some numbers and projections I found on the topic:
According to http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html,
The global computer guidance and robotic surgery market was worth $400 million in 2001 and is growing rapidly with 24 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2001 to 2010.Using these criteria, the market worth at the end of 2010 would be $ 3,437,770,203!
Using those numbers, I estimated an annual growth rate of slightly over 91% from 2000 to 2004.
A 2005 BusinessWeek article says that about 20,000 procedures were performed using robotic surgery in 2004, compared to just 1,500 procedures in 2000. (http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html)
Continuing that trend to 2010, there would have been 1,860,839 robotic surgeries performed...
HOWEVER...
According to http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/,
"Surgical robots won FDA approval in 2000, and there are now 1,395 of them in 860 hospitals worldwide, performing more than 200,000 operations a year. Officials at Intuitive Surgical, the robot’s manufacturer, say 70 percent of all prostatectomies in the United States now are done by robot."
and in the Philadelphia Inquierer's "A surgeon's hands or a robot's?"
(http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html)
The number of surgeries [in the U.S] performed using da Vinci rose 51 percent in just one year, to 200,000 in 2009.(DaVinci currently being one of the, if not the most popular and widely used robotic surgery apparatus)
So obviously, the initial growth rate will, and has already slowed down. I tried to adjust for this and came up with an average annual increase of almost 47% between 2004 and 2010 (Note: This number does come close to the 51% increase mentioned in the statement above)
This trend leads me to believe that there will continue to be growth in this field, just not as agressive as in the beginning.
I believe the use of computers and robots in surgeries will increase quite a bit in the near future, as computer technology becomes more advanced and also more readily available. If more researchers and companies enter this market, competition will help the advances in this field to increase, and more and different machines will become available. Increased availabitlity will drive down the current cost involved, and make robots a pheasable alternative in the operating room of the future.
I also think that the current technology will diversify, so that more and more different procedures are handeled by robotic methods. The type of surgeries that require high amounts of precision, such as eye or brain surgeries,will probably be the first to be performed by robots soley. Eventually, many other routine surgeries will be handeled robotically as well, because it will be cheaper to use the machine rather than a full complement of human surgeons. Procedures will be (pre-) programmed into the apparatus, with the surgeon being present only to supervise and make necessary adjustments. I think this will cause a new field of medicine to develop, one where surgeons are trained more on how to program or control the machine rather than medicine itself.
I think that the possibility of technical glitches will probably always keep human doctors in close proximity, and so there will always be a human element present in the operating room. I think we will take on the role of a supervisor, telling the machine what to do, and keeping an eye on its performance.
Sources:
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/466691_8
http://insideuab.com/2010/08/use-of-surgical-robots-on-rise-in-operating-rooms/
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-09-23/health/future.surgery.robots_1_robotic-surgery-da-vinci-system-medical-robots?_s=PM:HEALTH
http://science.howstuffworks.com/robotic-surgery1.htm
http://biomed.brown.edu/Courses/BI108/BI108_2004_Groups/Group02/Group%2002%20Website/robodisadvan.htm
http://allaboutroboticsurgery.com/allaboutroboticsurgery.html
http://www.hoise.com/vmw/02/articles/vmw/LV-VM-10-02-8.html
http://www.philly.com/inquirer/health_science/weekly/20100823_A_surgeon_s_hands_or_a_robot_s_.html
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